Reconsidering the likelihood of extraterrestrials

In 2017, The New York Times published "Glowing Auras and 'Black Money': The Pentagon's Mysterious U.F.O. Program". That article helped change the common perception about UFOs and intelligent life on other planets from "goofy people who wear tinfoil hats" to "Hmm, maybe there is something to this."

Since then, military sources have publicly released and verified images of UFOs, often referred to as "UAPs," Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena. Highly placed military officers and civilians have become whistleblowers, Congress has held public and private hearings, stacks of official reports have been released, and bipartisan legislation has been enacted to force government and military transparency on the issue.

Wow, that's a mouthful, but as I said, a lot has happened. Let's step back for a moment and conduct a simple thought experiment. Assume no one has ever seen an unidentified anything flying around in our skies. What could we say about the likelihood of intelligent life elsewhere in our galaxy, or elsewhere in the universe?

In our case, during the course of a few billion years, dust and gases formed stars and planets. About 4.5 billion years ago life emerged on Earth, and then...whammo! A mere 300,000 years ago, Adam and Eve, or their historical evolutionary equivalents, walked Earth for the first time.

The basic underlying premise is that presumably the laws of physics are the same everywhere in our Milky Way galaxy, and everywhere in the universe. We know life emerged on the planet Earth, and we can imagine that life could arise on other planets "similar" to Earth. What does "similar" mean? Here are a few commonly outlined criteria:

Earth-like planets are generally comparable in size and mass to Earth.

These planets must orbit within the habitable zone of their star which is the region where conditions are just right for liquid water to exist on the surface.

Earth-like planets typically have a solid rocky surface-in contrast to gas giants.

An Earth-like atmosphere would contain essential gases like oxygen and nitrogen, as well as the right pressure to support liquid water.

Ok then, how many of these "Earth-like" planets are believed to be in our galaxy, the Milky Way? Hold on to your hat! Estimates range from 10 to 40 billion Earth-like planets based on current astronomical research. Wow. And that is just in our medium-sized Milky Way galaxy. How many other galaxies are there?

I am not a math whiz and these numbers are just mindboggling, so here is my favorite answer to that question. Pick up a single grain of sand and hold it at arm's length between your thumb and forefinger. Look at the grain of sand. It is blocking out about 10,000 galaxies in the universe.

Even if only one out of every million, or heck, every billion Earth-like planets in our galaxy-not to mention the entire universe-has developed intelligent life, that's a lot of little green aliens running around, or lizard people, or tall whites, or whatever.

Given the odds, I think it would be quite extraordinary if intelligent life did not exist elsewhere in the universe. Of course, the next logical question is, are some of these extraterrestrials popping into Earth's skies for a visit?

Thousands of UFO sightings have been investigated in the last few decades and have been attributed to Venus, satellites, airplanes and rockets, swamp gas, and the like. But some have been tracked on civilian and military radar, witnessed by civilian and military pilots, and experienced by police and other credible observers on the ground-sometimes all at the same time.

These remain "UFOs," and to a great extent the details remain locked up in government and military files. However, there has been a steady leak of information since the NYT article, but just a leak. Congress, however, in a bipartisan effort, tried to pry the top off the secrecy.

The UAP Disclosure Act was introduced in 2023 by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Senator Mike Rounds (R-SD) in a rare effort of bipartisan cooperation. It passed and is now law of the land, but it was so heavily watered down in the political process it may do very little to facilitate disclosure of records held by the government and military.

So, the foot is in the door and the cup is half full, to mix metaphors. But you get the idea. Meanwhile, when you are outside, don't forget to look up. You will frequently be rewarded by spectacular cloud formations or beautiful blue skies, and maybe you'll see the occasional orange globe or black triangle with blinking lights zip by. Could be some of our joyriding extraterrestrial neighbors.

Lawrence D. Weiss is a UAA Professor of Public Health, Emeritus, creator of the UAA Master of Public Health program, and author of several books and numerous articles. He also teaches a class on UFOs for Opportunities for Lifelong Education (OLE) in Anchorage.

Author Bio

Lawrence D. Weiss is a UAA Professor of Public Health, Emeritus, creator of the UAA Master of Public Health program, and author of several books and numerous articles.

 
 
Rendered 10/02/2024 03:41